2023 NFL Dynasty League - Week 3
Playoff Hunt
Current Standings
The hunt for the playoffs as it stands. All-play is the record if all teams were to play each other every week. xWins is the number of wins you would have expected so far based on the all-play record. The playoff and bye % is calculated by calculating player scores since 2013 based on their rank and sampling these to give a score for each simulation. The optimal lineup is calculated and then an efficiency score is calculated to give the starting lineup score. 1000 different seasons have been simulated using the wins to date and the remaining fixtures for each team. Strength of roster is taken into account in these calculations.
| Position | Manager | Wins | Points | All-Play | xWins | Playoff % | Bye % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pindeco | 3 | 443.12 | 33-0 | 3.0 | 85.4 | 20.9 |
| 2 | hyperpringle | 3 | 340.24 | 18-15 | 1.6 | 96.0 | 53.4 |
| 3 | DanCoulton | 2 | 373.00 | 23-10 | 2.1 | 67.2 | 10.6 |
| 4 | mikepearson | 2 | 354.72 | 20-13 | 1.8 | 88.7 | 35.0 |
| 5 | TenAndJerry | 2 | 354.36 | 20-13 | 1.8 | 92.2 | 40.7 |
| 6 | 0llie | 2 | 326.92 | 17-16 | 1.5 | 80.5 | 17.9 |
| 7 | msouthwell | 1 | 339.02 | 19-14 | 1.7 | 5.0 | 0.2 |
| 8 | jhh82 | 1 | 323.64 | 15-18 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 9 | calumedwards | 1 | 276.44 | 6-27 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 0.0 |
| 10 | benturvill61 | 1 | 230.92 | 3-30 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 11 | Tomcoulton10 | 0 | 334.56 | 19-14 | 1.7 | 83.7 | 21.3 |
| 12 | JoeWright | 0 | 281.90 | 5-28 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Wins over Expectation
Wins over expectation (WOE) looks at the relationship between actual wins and all-play wins. This shows how lucky or unlucky a team has been with the schedule.
The dots on the chart below show how many wins the team have, whilst the arrow shows where they should actually be if the H2H format wasn’t in place. Teams with arrows pointing right can count themselves unlucky, whilst teams with arrows pointing left are fortunate to have as many wins as they do.
hyperpringle has been the luckiest so far, with 1.4 more wins than expected.
Tomcoulton10 can feel hard done by, with 1.7 fewer wins than expected.
Win Projections
The following chart shows the distribution of total expected wins over the season. Any wins so far have been included in the calculation, and you would expect the spread to reduce as the season progresses and the win totals become more certain.
Projected Season Rank
Using the win totals from the chart above, the following chart shows the likelihood of each team finishing in a given position.
Point Projections for Week 4
The following chart shows the distribution of points for the upcoming week.
Using the outputs from above, the next chart shows the probability of each team of winning the week 4 matchup against their opponent.
Story of the Season
The following chart shows the performance of each team as the season has progressed. This is calculated as the xWins for each week minus the average wins each week (0.5). This strips out any influence of matchup and purely looks at your points position in a given week.
For example, an increasing line in the first half of the season followed by a decreasing line over the second half would signify good performance to start the year, but a poor run to end the season.
League Position Tracker
The next table tracks the league position by week for each team in the league. To isolate a single team’s record, double click on the legend on the right.
Matchup Importance
The following table shows the importance of the next matchup for each manager. Win shows the Playoff % if the matchup is won, and Loss shows the chances with a loss. The Current % is the playoff probability before week 4 takes place. The size of the bar represents the importance of the matchup for each team.
Using this information, we can calculate the importance of each matchup in week 4. The numbers shown give the average playoff leverage for each matchup.
| DanCoulton | 12.7 | Tomcoulton10 |
| jhh82 | 4.7 | mikepearson |
| benturvill61 | 4.1 | 0llie |
| calumedwards | 3.7 | Pindeco |
| TenAndJerry | 3.1 | hyperpringle |
| JoeWright | 2.4 | msouthwell |
Potential Points
The following table shows the potential points that could have been scored if the perfect squad had been played each week.
| Rank | Manager | Points |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pindeco | 488.98 |
| 2 | 0llie | 479.88 |
| 3 | DanCoulton | 472.20 |
| 4 | Tomcoulton10 | 439.78 |
| 5 | TenAndJerry | 439.40 |
| 6 | hyperpringle | 428.90 |
| 7 | mikepearson | 423.32 |
| 8 | msouthwell | 397.66 |
| 9 | jhh82 | 390.20 |
| 10 | JoeWright | 390.10 |
| 11 | calumedwards | 335.40 |
| 12 | benturvill61 | 316.56 |
The matchups for week 3 are shown below, along with the potential points for each matchup.
| JoeWright | 125.28 | 146.96 | hyperpringle |
| 0llie | 168.62 | 88.50 | jhh82 |
| Pindeco | 187.82 | 130.96 | msouthwell |
| mikepearson | 143.08 | 127.20 | Tomcoulton10 |
| benturvill61 | 108.88 | 98.02 | calumedwards |
| DanCoulton | 205.38 | 172.20 | TenAndJerry |
Draft Picks
Projected Draft Order
The 4 rounds of the 2024 rookie draft are shown below, using the potential points order as at today.
Round 1
| Pick | Owner | Original Owner |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | benturvill61 | |
| 2 | calumedwards | |
| 3 | JoeWright | |
| 4 | jhh82 | |
| 5 | msouthwell | |
| 6 | Tomcoulton10 | |
| 7 | 0llie | |
| 8 | TenAndJerry | |
| 9 | benturvill61 | mikepearson |
| 10 | DanCoulton | |
| 11 | hyperpringle | |
| 12 | Pindeco |
Round 2
| Pick | Owner | Original Owner |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | benturvill61 | |
| 2 | calumedwards | |
| 3 | JoeWright | |
| 4 | mikepearson | jhh82 |
| 5 | msouthwell | |
| 6 | JoeWright | Tomcoulton10 |
| 7 | 0llie | |
| 8 | TenAndJerry | |
| 9 | mikepearson | |
| 10 | DanCoulton | |
| 11 | hyperpringle | |
| 12 | Pindeco |
Round 3
| Pick | Owner | Original Owner |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | benturvill61 | |
| 2 | calumedwards | |
| 3 | JoeWright | |
| 4 | jhh82 | |
| 5 | msouthwell | |
| 6 | 0llie | Tomcoulton10 |
| 7 | 0llie | |
| 8 | TenAndJerry | |
| 9 | mikepearson | |
| 10 | mikepearson | DanCoulton |
| 11 | hyperpringle | |
| 12 | Pindeco |
Round 4
| Pick | Owner | Original Owner |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | benturvill61 | |
| 2 | calumedwards | |
| 3 | JoeWright | |
| 4 | jhh82 | |
| 5 | msouthwell | |
| 6 | Tomcoulton10 | |
| 7 | 0llie | |
| 8 | TenAndJerry | |
| 9 | mikepearson | |
| 10 | DanCoulton | |
| 11 | hyperpringle | |
| 12 | Pindeco |
Draft Pick Likelihood
The following chart shows the likelihood of drafting at each position in the top 6. Picks 7-12 have been removed as the playoffs determine the back half of the first round.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | Playoffs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| benturvill61 | 83.9% | 12.8% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| jhh82 | 10.0% | 40.1% | 24.1% | 17.1% | 7.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| JoeWright | 3.3% | 20.1% | 28.8% | 27.3% | 18.7% | 1.7% | 0.1% |
| calumedwards | 2.1% | 18.7% | 26.6% | 29.9% | 20.1% | 1.5% | 1.1% |
| msouthwell | 0.7% | 8.3% | 18.2% | 23.0% | 40.3% | 4.5% | 5.0% |
| DanCoulton | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 3.6% | 28.6% | 67.2% |
| 0llie | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 19.2% | 80.5% |
| Tomcoulton10 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 1.7% | 14.5% | 83.7% |
| Pindeco | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 3.9% | 9.4% | 85.4% |
| mikepearson | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.0% | 9.3% | 88.7% |
| TenAndJerry | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.1% | 6.7% | 92.2% |
| hyperpringle | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 3.8% | 96.0% |
Roster Comparison
Dynasty
The value of each roster has been calculated using crowdsourced values from KeepTradeCut. A value is calculated for each player and these are totaled.
Draft picks for the next 2 years are also included in the estimate, but given how difficult it is to value future picks, these have been assumed to fall in the middle of the given round.
Contender
The following chart uses a similar concept, but looks at the value of the squad for this season. The chart above will take into account the long term value of a player, whereas this chart purely looks at squad value for the remainder of this season. Any injuries will affect the value and immediate competitiveness of each team.
Roster Maturity
This chart shows the spread of ages on each roster within the league. The narrower the box, the more concentrated the ages are, and the larger boxes will have a wide spread of ages.